India's equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride, after delivering spectacular returns for two consecutive years - in 2020 and 2021. The benchmark National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty50 is down 1.5 per cent in the first nine months of the current calendar year 2022 (CY22) as foreign portfolio investors sold Indian stocks due to rising bond yields in the US and across global markets, including India. The sell-off in the Indian equity markets has, however, not been broad-based and largely limited to sectors facing earnings headwinds from rising interest rates, lower commodity and energy prices, and likely economic recession in advanced economies.
"It went up to 20-odd per cent in 2019 and to 25 per cent a year later. "That's when we decided to pull the plug; it was not sustainable for our business," says Chadha. Madison & Pike, instead, turned to Mumbai-based start-up Thrive, which provides third-party delivery services to restaurants at a much lower commission - three to five per cent.
What worked for Airtel was that its data traffic growth was 13 per cent sequentially and its average data usage was even higher than Jio's at 11.9 gigabyte per month per user.
Higher inflation has again become a matter of concern for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. After prices of commodities like sugar and wheat moved higher and stabilised at those levels, the crude oil too surged, adding to FMCG firms' worries. Besides, a dry spell in August in the ongoing monsoon season impacted rural demand.
From the 30-share basket, 28 scrips suffered losses. Over 200 stocks were at their 52-week low in Tuesday's trade.
Sensex, Nifty slightly upbeat, midcaps to rule markets this week.
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
However, in the first quarter when the country was under a lockdown, net financial savings rose to 21 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the data released in the RBI's monthly bulletin.
The combined weight of IT companies in the benchmark Nifty 50 index is now at a five-year high of 15 per cent as these companies continue to outperform the broader market.
Most rating agencies had projected contraction in India's GDP for the first quarter of 2020-21.
The rising goods and services tax (GST) and personal income-tax collections may bolster the Narendra Modi government's ability to announce new schemes or enhance existing ones.
DRL launched four new products in North America during the previous quarter.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
HDFC Bank, the country's largest private-sector lender, lost to competition wholesale loans of around Rs 50,000 crore after it increased interest rates in May, said Chief Financial Officer Srinivasan Vaidyanathan in an analyst call. "There were some customers who were offered lower rates by other market participants. "But we decided not to cut back on our rates," he said while addressing analysts after the announcement of the bank's Q1 earnings.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
Lockdowns imposed by the states in April and May to contain the second wave of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic has likely led to the economy contracting 12 per cent in the June quarter as against 23.9 per cent contraction in the same quarter in 2020, says a brokerage report. The economy had its worst contraction on record in FY21 at 7.3 per cent as the 2.5 months of unplanned lockdown announced by the centre with just a four-hour notice had crippled the economy in the first quarter with a massive 23.9 per cent contraction, which improved to -17.5 per cent in the second quarter.
'We remain positive on technology, private sector financials, gas, infrastructure, and export-oriented plays.'
It is to be seen if SBI under Setty, who will have a three-year term, can ride the economic cycle to take SBI to new heights, navigating some of these challenges.
'The race is now on for Indian IT firms to develop their AI prowess and focus on a software-first approach to services as the people element becomes more complicated with Trump's expected new regulations.'
The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing lockdown may have put the best of funds on a backfoot of deal activity, RIL, however, has been an outlier. With 10 different investors brought in for its telecom venture Jio Platforms, RIL undertook 12 different transactions since April this year.
Distribution yields could rise, but risk of Covid, higher interest rates remain.
The company's decision may impact new projects, which are likely to get delayed, said sources in the know. Among the IT players that work with Macy's are Accenture, Cognizant, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), and Infosys. Macy's is among the top 5-10 clients of these companies.
Midcap stocks continued to remain on buyers' radar with BSE Midcap index up 0.1%.
10 non-bank and non-finance stocks from the BSE500 Index universe that offer an optimal blend of low valuation, reasonably robust revenue and earnings growth in recent quarters, a strong balance sheet, and most importantly, positive cash flow from their operations.
For the smart phone industry, it has been a lacklustre quarter of CY2024, with sales falling by 3-4 per cent over the same period last year, according to Counterpoint Research projections. However, with the launch of many new models in Q1 of CY24, overall shipments grew year-on-year by 10-12 per cent. In CY23 shipments remained flat, ending the year with 152 million units.
Members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) felt that though the Indian economy was resilient in the third wave, it, however, lost some momentum and with inflation likely to soften, there is room to continue with the accommodative stance and support revival, the minutes of the MPC meeting released on Thursday revealed. The six-member MPC voted to keep the policy rate unchanged and continued with the accommodative stance at its meeting on February 10. However, external member Jayanth Verma voted against the stance because he felt a switch to neutral was long overdue and the current stance has become counterproductive and deflects focus away from addressing recessionary trends that date back to at least 2019.
With another quarter of steady growth in demand, cement companies are expected to report strong year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in earnings, according to analysts. The September quarter (Q2FY24) also witnessed a resumption of price hikes in certain markets. UltraTech Cement, India's largest cement producer, reported a 15 per cent Y-o-Y increase in cement sales in the country for the quarter under review.
The bigger worry is that the miss for FY19 is likely to be significant even after assuming macro factors such as crude oil prices, rupee, input costs, and interest rates, do not worsen from the current levels, reports Vishal Chhabria.
Recovery seen in Q4, companies continue to focus on enhancing cash flow
The SBI report ruled out a October rate hike
Currency played an important role in Q2, with US dollar, Japanese yen and euro appreciating vis-a-vis the Indian rupee, while the Brazilian real, South African rand and Russian ruble depreciating against rupee.
The country's exports rose by 48.34 per cent to $32.5 billion on account of healthy growth in shipments of petroleum products, gems and jewellery, and chemicals, leather and marine goods, according to the data released by the Commerce Ministry on Thursday. Imports in June too rose by 98.31 per cent to $41.87 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $9.37 billion as against a trade surplus of $0.79 billion in the same month last year. During April-June 2021, the exports increased by 85.88 per cent to $95.39 billion.
In his second year at the helm, Infosys CEO & MD Salil Parekh looks optimistic about the company's growth prospects. With stability back in the industry, Parekh, in an interview with Bibhu Ranjan Mishra and Debasis Mohapatra, says turbulence is over and Infosys is on its way to regaining its old glory.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to cut their shareholding in both Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) and HDFC Bank. As per latest data, during the June 2022-23 quarter (Q1FY23), FPIs held 68.1 per cent and 65.96 per cent, respectively, in HDFC and HDFC Bank. Overseas shareholding is down 111/406 basis points (bps) and 260/412 bps on the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)/year-to-date (YTD) basis in HDFC and HDFC Bank, respectively.
According to JP Morgan, it seems that Jio is willing to go for the jugular in chasing market share if this hurts some of its standing rivals like Vodafone and Idea to a point from where they find it difficult to fight back.
While Mukesh Ambani-led RIL posted a 108 per cent YoY rise in profit after tax for Q4FY21 at Rs 13,227 crore, it fell short of Bloomberg estimate of Rs 13,704 crore.
CREDAI-MCHI, a body of developers in Mumbai, has pegged the drop in sales booking at around 80 per cent in the February-March period this year. This is the second highest fall in residential sales in the past five years, after Q1, 2017, when the decline, due to the note ban, was 37 per cent.
There are conflicting views on Delhivery. The logistics player's results for the July-September quarter (Q2FY24) are being interpreted as good by some analysts and disappointing by others. As India's largest listed logistics player, the company stands to benefit from the formalisation across the mostly unorganised logistics space. Delhivery provides solutions to 23,113 customers, including e-commerce marketplaces, direct-to-consumer e-tailers, and enterprises across verticals.
